Mathematical Modeling of Human Bocavirus Transmission Dynamics in Children: A Fractional Order Approach Incorporating Clinical Pathways and Viral Persistence
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.64891/jome.27Keywords:
Human Bocavirus, Fractional human to human model, Numerical solution, Sensitivity analysisAbstract
Human Bocavirus is commonly observed among pediatric respiratory tract infections. It remains poorly understood in terms of its epidemiological transmission dynamics and clinical progression. This study proposes a fractional model that incorporates outpatient treatment, hospitalization, and postrecovery viral persistence to analyze the spread and clinical course of human bocavirus infection in children. The model’s well-posedness is established by proving positivity, boundedness, and the existence and uniqueness of solutions. The basic reproduction number is derived using the next-generation matrix method, and its sensitivity to key parameters is examined. Numerical simulations for different fractional orders reveal the memory-dependent dynamics of the infection. Model parameters are informed by clinical studies conducted in T¨urkiye, and the results underscore the importance of evaluating Human Bocavirus not only in terms of transmission dynamics but also its burden on the healthcare system. This study provides an original framework for investigating human bocavirus as a human-to-human transmitted viral infection through fractional mathematical modeling and contributes to the literature on epidemiological and clinical analyses focused on the pediatric population.
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